Tautology of the Skeptical Sinner

In other news, Bernanke also believes that the Bigfoot body was not a hoax.

Personally, I’d listen to Buffet more than the Fed chairman. This is nothing but another straw for the bulls to grasp at, boys and girls, nothing but a self-delusional bear market rally.

Next week will be a little up and down, but when we push past September, its going to be a Dark October.

It’s a great time to be short on financials.

(I’m short on Bank of America corp at the time of writing)

First off, let me open by saying “I told you so“.

Financial whizz, Kenneth Rogoff, stated in an interview today that he anticipates “The worst is yet to come in the U.S.,” (source) He expects a major bank to go bust in the next few months.

As we’ve seen (July 15th, anyone?) any time even a small bank goes pop, financials get hammered.

“The degree and depth of what’s happening in the financial industry is beyond anything we’ve seen in decades and it takes time to get your arms around the severity of what’s happening and what the long-term and short-term ramifications are,” - said John Merrill, chief investment officer at Tanglewood Wealth Management. (source)

Never mind Freddie and Fannie getting hit hard by the potential government bailout… there’s more to come…

If anyone is still under the illusion that we aren’t in a bear market at this point, move along, you’re not going to be any further convinced here. But for those of you who realize that important factoid can appreciate the short rallies we see are really false ones and that there is going to be a big drop coming, no matter which bank gets hit with bad news.

As a result, I’m holding aggressive shorts on Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) - the one bank thats trying to convince us that everythings okay. The one bank that kept its dividend the same. And the one bank that happened to buy Countrywide earlier this year.

Yes, I know, I know… they’re saying that all of CWD bonds and liabilities are contractually excluded from affecting them because of the way the buyout was engineered, but you can’t buy a lemon without ending up smelling a little citrusy. My money’s on investors finding out the hard way that they’re not as protected as they’re saying they are.

I’m counting on a strike price of $17.50 sometime between now and November 22nd, and with a put position of  $22.50 currently at $1.72 that’s going to yield an almost 300% return. (I got in at $1.15 during a nice little delusional rally).

Given the drop BAC took during the failure of IndyMac.. (Down to $18.44) I don’t consider this unrealistic.

If you’re still hoping the Fed may magic up engineer a miracle rally and want a little more time to save your position, go for a Jan 09 short position.

As always, remember, any option trading can be considered a high risk position, so be sure to allow for that risk to be part of a balanced trading strategy unless you want to end up like the financials are now.

Ahh 80’s geekiness revisited with relish, Karate Kid 1 and 2 available now on hulu.com - wax on… wax off.

Classic.

While I’m thankful that confidence is surging again, I’m too plugged in to the economy to think that this is anything but a short term Bear Market Rally.

Don’t people read? Can’t they hear the desperation in the Real Estate and Automotive sectors? Don’t they understand that the tangled mess of the Subprime CDOs is still ready to bite?

I’m short on Citi and Bank of America, and I expect them to both drop substantially by the end of the year.

I don’t mind if I lose money on these options, because if I do - it will mean that the financials did manage to get their sh*t back together and that the economy won’t be in the deep freeze for much longer.

I’m going with a blend of Puts (Options) with Citi and Bank of America, Jan 09 date on the expectation that the value of these options will rise.

.CMC - 15.00 Strike Price (Meaning a 25% drop or worse, in the stock price of Citi between now and Jan 09) - Currently trading at $0.93 - I imagine any seriously bad news (Which I’m expecting) will put the value of this option up to $1.50 or more for a 50% + gain.

.BACME is another one I want to get in on, but the price right now is a little more than I would like. Its a strike price of $25.00, and trading at $2.04 today, meaning that Bank of America shares need to fall $8 - I would expect these to go as high as $4.00 if Bank of America gets more bad subprime fallout. My target price is around $1.80 before I buy these puts.

If you’re not familiar with Options, please keep in mind that it is essentially gambling. Never work options if you are unfamiliar with the risks.

If you’re looking for a long hold investment, I’m liking ACI - they’re coal, and if you don’t think that the Green Revolution is going to fly all the way, they’re definitely a sound long term aquisition as an exporter of coal. A Strong dollar, or Agressive Eco-legislation will push the price down further, but ultimately, Energy is a long term growth product, and there are tons of coal burning power plants around the world.

I don’t do Bleeding edge Technology. I always like to wait until things have been out for a while before forking over my hard earned dosh (Thats “bucks” in English slang, gentle American readers)

But after playing around with GH3 I decided I was ready to add it to the many wastes of time I currently have.

Love it. Feel like a nerd for playing it, but it’s allll good.

The timing has absolutely nothing to do with the GH3 contest we’re having at work to benefit the Susan Komer Breast Cancer fund… nope… none at all…

Anyway, no more time to post, I have two more days to practice my shredding!

Rock on Baby!

“Spies don’t get fired… they get burned”

I recently read a review of Burn Notice. A USA original series which is part action, part tongue in cheek that was getting some excellent ratings. Its second series season has just started, but guess where you can find season 1 in its entirety??!! You got it.

Check out the first 5 minutes and see if you likey

Go Hulu, it’s your birthday…

The show that we all love to rag on, yet can’t surf away from is now on demand at hulu

Let’s see how many “accidently” hit the link… you freaks!

I like to keep track of the blogs and sites I run across, this way I won’t forget later which site was useful/funny etc. etc. Occasionally I remember to share them.

Hair of the blog on the values of entering into discourse with service industry employees http://smellmyfinger.wordpress.com/2008/05/28/listen-i-heard-you/

I failed a geek test spectacularly over at the Taoist biker
http://taoistbiker.wordpress.com/2008/07/02/quick-dork-test/

The Generation Gap regenerates for Gen 2k over at A Tale Told by an Idiot
http://ianheath653.wordpress.com/2008/05/16/and-so-the-generation-gap-regenerates/

(And I potentially identify another one of Her Royal Majesty’s exports to The Colonies)

The “I Can’t believe it got through the Filter at Work” site of the week.
(And close contender for the most amount of smut and/or profanity in the smallest space - well done!)
http://emergingontheotherside.wordpress.com/2008/07/08/sugasm-139/trackback/

I found the above looking for the aforementioned ex-pats, not surfing for smut at work (I do that purely at home, thank you very much) on this search I also located:

http://calvininjax.wordpress.com/about/ Who I was obliged to type back a reply in a deep northern accent (Typing in accents is always a challenge)

and

http://bardsworld.wordpress.com/ Who reminded me of an old TV Show I hadn’t thought of in years called “The Crystal Maze“

I think it would be neat to have a little Ex-pat blogroll on the page, and through the magic of Wordpress. BING! Look Down and to the right… for my next trick…

Theres my one at Wordpress thats clean if bland, and there’s this one thats pretty.

Which would you prefer?

I was thinking about the tag line “Where only the Theme is black and white”.

You decide!

And what a finale it was. **spoilers** see it first!

The final two were Christina, a 23 year old Culinary Student from MO, and Petrozza a 47 year Catering Director from NC.  If you haven’t seen it yet, you can see it over at Hulu.com, because **spoilers** will follow.

Both were strong players, and throughout the show, both of them played fair with a minimal amount of strategizing… they just focused on cranking out good food, and aside from both of them feeling the stress early on, both had great attitudes.

I really felt it was too close to call going in, but I was leaning towards Petrozza  although Christina is very cute, and talented.

Ultimately, it was a cliff hanger to the end with neither Chef really pulling away. Both had handicaps, the AWFUL Jen was on Petrozza’s team… and had the nerve to ask Chef Ramsay for a letter of reference! Then proceded to sulk her way to the end of the show.

Christina had the unpredictable and frankly, somewhat unstable Matt. Matt can cook, and when he’s not getting yelled at can really deliver good results, but does not do well under pressure.

Petrozza ran out of 2 of his prepped appetizers, and Christina had two dishes sent back for being cold. Otherwise they both had a great dinner service.

Ultimately, the way Christina handled her staff and her willingness to adapt and learn was what won her the 4th Hells Kitchen.

Way to go Christina! Enjoy your new role at LAs London Restaurant

Theres a great interview with her here.

CAN’T WAIT TIL NEXT SEASON DAMMIT!!!